The Sky isn't Falling. It's Much Worse.
In 1978, NASA scientist Donald Kessler realized we might have a big problem.
By the late '70s, tons of satellites were being launched into orbit. From military surveillance to commercial communication to scientific research, every industry was in the satellite game. Add to that, Earth's low orbit was littered with upper-stage rocket bodies that remained in orbit after their payloads were long gone. Donald Kessler was concerned about all that debris above our heads. And he knew it was only going to get worse.
Kessler's worry was that two orbiting pieces of debris would hit each other. Statistically, it's almost impossible they wouldn't. This may not seem like a big deal. But in space, there are no casual fender benders . A collision of two objects results in thousands of smaller fragments flying everywhere.
Why such massive fragmentation? Why isn't there just a big dent, or a single piece of a satellite broken off? Because these objects are going much faster than cars on the freeway. Actually, they're going faster than the fastest supersonic plane ever made, which hit 4,500 miles an hour.
Objects in low Earth orbit travel a staggering 17,000 miles an hour. And when two of them collide, their relative velocity combines. That means they hit each other ten times faster than a bullet. And when they do, there's nothing left but an ocean of debris, every single piece traveling 17,000 miles an hour just the same.
Kessler did the math on this. And he took it one step further. Because that one collision wouldn't be the end of it. A single collision could cause other collisions, which could keep multiplying. In the worst case scenario, you get what is now called a Kessler Cascade.
This is a massive chain-reaction of collisions, turning every object in the same orbit into high-speed shrapnel. None of these pieces would fall to Earth. They're moving too fast -- Earth's gravity would not take hold. But that means all that shrapnel stays in orbit, creating a dangerous band of flying debris. Anything currently in orbit would be destroyed.
The International Space Station would be decimated. GPS, weather, communication - all satellites would be gone. We'd be shut off from satellite technology, not just in the short term but for decades. Even centuries.
When Kessler had this terrifying insight, we had 1,500 objects in low Earth orbit. There are a few more than that now.
Based on the 2024 Space Environment Report from the European Space Association, there are now over 54,000 today. That's including anything four inches across or bigger, which, at 17,000 miles an hour, is plenty big enough to incite the cascade.
We are clearly nearing Kessler's tipping point. We need to get rid of more debris than we add. And currently we're doing the opposite. We launch new satellites faster than the old one's naturally decay and fade into the denser part of Earth's atmosphere, where the friction from their tremendous speed generates heat upwards of 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit, vaporizing the object.
We're working on solutions. The latest satellites are now designed with end-of-life protocols. They de-orbit themselves when their mission is over. But until we have a bigger plan, the risk of collision in low Earth orbit remains.
Which makes Russia's latest satellite launch particularly concerning.
You may have read about it. The Kremlin launched three satellites, Kosmos 2581, 2582, and 2583. Their purpose remains a mystery. But they're displaying disturbing behavior, especially if you're concerned about the Kessler Cascade.
In March, the Russian satellites appeared to be conducting proximity operations, maneuvering close to other objects in space. Not the normal activity of an orbiting satellite. Some speculate they are just spying. But what if the Kremlin's plan is simply to collide into another satellite at an opportune moment? Kessler's Cascade could easily become reality.
That band of high speed shrapnel would destroy all our communication and surveillance satellites. And leave the United States -- along with the rest of world -- in the dark.
